Good morning,

Spent a couple awesome days in Austin, TX this week. Despite the city’s hype, it’s underrated. I don’t think I’ve been so impressed with a city since the first time I visited Tokyo.

I know many you have been wondering how to think about signaling / locking your ETH for the EdgeWare distribution. (If you’re not familiar, read the blog posts here). I don’t have much of an opinion either way about the project, but there’s an opportunity to earn some “free” tokens. I wanted to know just how much one stood to gain so I built a quick and dirty model that you’re free to fork and use for yourself. Check it out here. Rows 4-6 let you input what you’re thinking of doing and see an estimated ROI. The assumptions and estimations are below that.

Hope you’re enjoying the market chop!

Tony

Coin prices

You may have noticed some coin price action over the last couple weeks. BTC has fled its lows while many altcoins are hitting new lows against BTC.

This chart from Avi Felman describes the relative price action well:

btc alt correlation

Between February and April of this year, the entire asset class was essentially moving in concert. Anywhere BTC went, the rest of the market followed.

And over the last month or so, we’ve flipped. Now the rest of the market is starting to do the opposite of whatever BTC does.

I covered this in my CUBS talk (slides here. My thinking was as follows:

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Members receive a members-only analysis each week that is timely and substantial. I've been asked to be more opinionated and responsive to current events, so I'll try to do that in this more private forum. If you want my critical take on what matters in the industry, you might enjoy these analyses.

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If you aren’t already familiar with my work, I write long-form analyses on building and investing in crypto, and the impact of crypto on society.

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Member updates

June 27, 2019

Pricing vs valuing cryptoassets (plus EdgeWare ROI model)

June 20, 2019

Libra versus the state and lessons from the Algorand auction

June 14, 2019

Who has power over Facebook's GlobalCoin?